April Market Update
There were 5,672 closings for all single family in April. This is a decline of 15.0% from March 2006, but could be the start of the 4th consecutive year-to-year quarterly decline. The following is a grid for the past five year-to-year quarterly percentage changes.
1qtr06 2qtr06 3qtr06 4qtr06 1qtr01 2qtr07
13.92% 8.92% -1.01% -6.31% -3.55% ?????
Single family detached had 4,797 closings or a year-to-year decline of 14.9%. This was the 9th consecutive period decline for single family detached.
Condos and townhomes closed 875 units or a year-to-year decline of 15.1%. After lagged closings are reported, the percentage change for condos, townhomes, and detached could still be in the double digits.
The average sale price for condos and townhomes for April was $202,190. This is a record high, eclipsing December 05’s $201,546, and was an increase of 5.0% over the same year ago period.
Single family detached had an average sale price of $265,818, which is an increase of 2.3% from April 2006.
When we have rising inventories and slowing demand there will always be increases in expired and withdrawn listings. In April there were 2,698 withdrawn listings for all single family. This is an increase of 1,129 from April 2006. For 2007 year-to-date there are more withdrawn listings than for all of 2005! This is also an all-time record for a monthly period.
There were 5,136 expired listings in April. This was an increase of 1,229 units over the same year ago period. There have been 19,502 year-to-date expired listings, which is almost equal to the total expired listings in all of 2000.
There were almost as many expired single family listings in April as there were closings. However, if you combine the withdrawn listings and the expired listings then there were 38% more expired & withdrawn listings than there were closings.
Months supply of inventory had detached-new at 12.5 months; attached-new at 11.8 months; detached-resale at 8.9 months; and attached-resale is 10.2 month’s supply. An average or standard months-supply is 6-8 months.
Days-on-market for all single family was 84.3. This is 6.0 days greater than April 2005 and the highest April DOM since April 1996’s 92.1.
We will continue our downward trend through the second quarter and into the third, but I still believe the turnaround will arrive at the end of the 3rd quarter or the 4th quarter. I predict the FED will “finally” react and reduce interest rates within 4-5 periods.
We have a buyer’s market with low interest rates, a lot of homes to chose from, and low unemployment, so if you’re a selling agent, disregard the media and get this market going.
Thank you,
Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2007 Smart Numbers
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