September Market Update
September ended what may be the worst year-to-year quarterly (July-September) percentage change in single family units closed that will ever be reported. At least I hope so.
There were 4,017 units closed for all single family in September. This is a 39.6% decline from September 2006. Plus, last September was our first year-to-year percentage decline reported during our housing recession. Even after lags are reported the percentage decline will be 24-27%, easily our greatest percentage decline to be reported since the early 90’s.
Single family detached closed 3,406 units or a decline of 39.6% and condos & townhomes closed 611 units or a decline of 39.7%. However, we are also comparing against a very strong housing market from 2004-2006. Even without the 4th quarter the year-to-date closings in 2007 are more than we had for all of 2002 and we could have more closings at year-end than we had in 2004.
The average price for all single family was $255,011 in September and $257,692 for year-to-date 2007. Both of the averages are up 2.6% and 2.9% from 2006.
The median price for year-to-date 2007 is $195,000, compared to 2006’s median price of $192,500 or an increase of 1.3%. The reason the increase for “average” is higher than the increase for “median” is that the high-end market has not declined like the rest of the market. The following chart is for 1MM+ closings for the past three years through September. One of the bright spots for housing in 2007 is that the high-end is ahead of last year.
yr/mth 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Total
2005 20 50 51 63 50 84 80 73 64 535
2006 38 53 73 67 95 115 99 77 62 679
2007 41 61 94 73 108 122 82 90 54 725
The record for expired listings for all single family was broken in September. There were 7,808 expired listings, easily surpassing the previous record of 7,168 from last December. This record will most likely be broken again before 2008.
There were 3,028 withdrawn listings for all single family in September. This fell short of the record broken in August, but was still the 3rd highest on record.
Days on market for all single family was 91.5 in September. This is the highest recorded DOM for all single family since February 1998.
Months-supply has slowed its increase, but the three year comparison greatly reflects our housing slowdown.
Months Supply 09/30/2005 09/30/2006 09/30/2007 % Change 06′
New - Single Family Detached 7.4 10.5 14.0 33.3%
New - Condos & Townhomes 7.3 8.8 14.2 61.4%
Resale - Single Family Detached 6.3 7.3 10.8 47.9%
Resale - Condos & Townhomes 10.0 9.1 11.3 24.2%
The good news, it is a great time to buy, the FED cut interest rates, consumer confidence increased for the first time in seven months, and the equity markets have improved. What we need is another rate cut, increased consumer confidence, and the equity markets continuing to improve. If this happens, housing will start to come back. October, November, and December will be key reporting periods to see if this will happen.
Thank you,
Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2007 Smart Numbers
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