December Market Update
This will not be an encouraging year-end report. October & November produced signs of market stabilization, but
December returned to a lot of downward trends.
Single family detached had 3,178 closings for December or a decline of 37% from December 2006. This result is also lower than December’s 1998-2005 results. After lags are reported, Single family detached may exceed 12/2001, three months after 9/11.
Single family detached has declined year-to-year for 16 out of the past 17 months.
Condos and townhomes closed 579 units in December or a decline of 38.9% over the same year ago period. This is the 10th consecutive monthly year-to-year decline and the 13th decline out of the past 16 periods.
For the year, condos and townhomes were down 12.2% from 2006. Single family detached was down 16.9% 2007
versus 2006. The only other year-to-year decline for single family detached was 2000/1999. That was the year of the NASDAQ collapse and the percentage decline was only 2 tenths of 1 percent. On the other hand, the only year-to-year decline since 1996 for condos and townhomes was 1999/1998 and that was only 8 tenths of 1 percent.
Total single family was down 16.2% for the entire year, 2007 versus 2006. Since 1996 there has never been a reported year-year decline for all single family housing, until 2007.
The very weak demand for housing during 2007 really showed up in the pricing trends for December. The average sale price in December for single family detached was $250,910 or a decline of 3.5% from December 2006. Since 1994, this is the greatest year-to-year monthly negative change in average price. There have been only 5 negative changes in year-to-year monthly average price declines in the past 13 years and two of them have been in the past three months.
The average price for condos and townhomes was $186,034 in December. This was a 7.8% decline from December
2006 and the lowest reported average price since July 2006.
Single family detached had 8,128 expired listings in December, easily a new monthly record, surpassing September 2007’s 6,561.
There were 1,656 expired listings for condos & townhomes in December and a new monthly record, easily surpassing December 2006’s 1,311 expired listings. For all single family there were 76,140 expired listings in 2007 or almost 20,000 more than 2006.
Days-on-market for all single family was 88.1 for 2007. This is the highest recorded yearly DOM since 1994.
Well, we are through with December and 2007! Now we are in 2008 and we need more interest rate cuts and to stay out of recession. However, it may be too late. Hopefully recent and future actions by the government can stave off any economic downturn.
However, what a GREAT time to buy a home in 2008, as lower interest rates are coming, prices are coming down, and it is an entertaining election year! What a FANTASTIC time to buy a home!
Thank you,
Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2007 Smart Numbers
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