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We have started off 2008 like we ended 2007, with a large year-to-year monthly percentage decline. There were 2,787 single-family closings in January or a decline of 38.9% from January 2007. This is also the lowest reported monthly closing total since January 2001.

There were 386 condo and townhome closings in January. This was a decline of 49.0% from the same year ago period. After lags are reported, the percentage decline may be the greatest on record, eclipsing last month’s (December 2007), 32.2% decline.

Single family detached closed 2,401 homes in January. This was a 36.9% decline versus January 2007 and the 18th decline in the past 19 months.

When demand declines prices soon follow. The average price for condos and townhomes was $176,895 in January. This is 6.5% lower than January 2007 and the lowest recorded average price since January 2003. There is a good chance the average will go lower, as the months supply for condos and townhomes is 11.1 for resales and a very high 16.0 for new construction.

The 16.0 months-supply for condo and townhome new construction is only what is currently listed. The actual months-supply is probably much greater, because usually only a “floor plan” is listed. There is currently a 4-year supply of new construction townhomes and condos on the market (mostly condos). The actual supply is probably much higher and the demand may never be there to absorb all of the high-end condos that are built or in the process of being built. Many of the proposed high-end condos have even been put on hold or have been canceled and will not be built.

The average price for single family detached was $246,833 in January. This is the lowest reported monthly average since 2006’s average of $240,844. This is also $44,000 lower than the all-time high for single family detached, which was $285,078 in June 2007.

There were 7,604 expired listings for all single family in January. This is down from last month’s all-time record high, but still 2,200 greater than the same year ago period.

There were 2,925 withdrawn listings for all single family in January versus 2,237 for January 2007.

Tell your buyers they have lower prices and a lot of inventory to choose from. The chart below shows how much more months-supply we have starting 2008 than there was two years ago.

Months - Supply	1/131/2006	1/31/2007	1/31/2008	% Change ‘06
New - Single Family Detached	7.6	12.0	13.8	86.60%
New - Condos & Townhomes	7.1	10.5	16.0	125.40%
Resale - Single Family Detached	5.7	7.0	10.9	91.20%
Resale - Condos & Townhomes	8.8	8.5	11.1	26.10%

The days-on-market for January single family was 101.8. This is the highest DOM since January 1998’s 108.4.

Third quarter 2006 we started our housing new construction downturn. Third quarter 2007 the entire housing market nose-dived after sub-prime was axed. Now after looking at December 2007 and January 2008’s results it sure looks like we are in a recession. We have had two strikes against us, lets hope we are not in strike three.

Thank you,
Steve Palm
Smart Numbers

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Tags: average home price, condo, floor plan, housing, new construction, recession, single family detached, single-family closings, townhome

This entry was posted on Friday, February 22nd, 2008 at 8:29 am and is filed under Steve Palm Monthly Reports. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.