We have started off 2008 like we ended 2007, with a large year-to-year monthly percentage decline. There were 2,787 single-family closings in January or a decline of 38.9% from January 2007. This is also the lowest reported monthly closing total since January 2001.

There were 386 condo and townhome closings in January. This was a decline of 49.0% from the same year ago period. After lags are reported, the percentage decline may be the greatest on record, eclipsing last month’s (December 2007), 32.2% decline.

Single family detached closed 2,401 homes in January. This was a 36.9% decline versus January 2007 and the 18th decline in the past 19 months.

When demand declines prices soon follow. The average price for condos and townhomes was $176,895 in January. This is 6.5% lower than January 2007 and the lowest recorded average price since January 2003. There is a good chance the average will go lower, as the months supply for condos and townhomes is 11.1 for resales and a very high 16.0 for new construction.

The 16.0 months-supply for condo and townhome new construction is only what is currently listed. The actual months-supply is probably much greater, because usually only a “floor plan” is listed. There is currently a 4-year supply of new construction townhomes and condos on the market (mostly condos). The actual supply is probably much higher and the demand may never be there to absorb all of the high-end condos that are built or in the process of being built. Many of the proposed high-end condos have even been put on hold or have been canceled and will not be built.

The average price for single family detached was $246,833 in January. This is the lowest reported monthly average since 2006’s average of $240,844. This is also $44,000 lower than the all-time high for single family detached, which was $285,078 in June 2007.

There were 7,604 expired listings for all single family in January. This is down from last month’s all-time record high, but still 2,200 greater than the same year ago period.

There were 2,925 withdrawn listings for all single family in January versus 2,237 for January 2007.

Tell your buyers they have lower prices and a lot of inventory to choose from. The chart below shows how much more months-supply we have starting 2008 than there was two years ago.

The days-on-market for January single family was 101.8. This is the highest DOM since January 1998’s 108.4.

Third quarter 2006 we started our housing new construction downturn. Third quarter 2007 the entire housing market nose-dived after sub-prime was axed. Now after looking at December 2007 and January 2008’s results it sure looks like we are in a recession. We have had two strikes against us, lets hope we are not in strike three.

Thank you,
Steve Palm
Smart Numbers

Popularity: 87% [?]

This will not be an encouraging year-end report. October & November produced signs of market stabilization, but
December returned to a lot of downward trends.

Single family detached had 3,178 closings for December or a decline of 37% from December 2006. This result is also lower than December’s 1998-2005 results. After lags are reported, Single family detached may exceed 12/2001, three months after 9/11.

Single family detached has declined year-to-year for 16 out of the past 17 months. 

Condos and townhomes closed 579 units in December or a decline of 38.9% over the same year ago period. This is the 10th consecutive monthly year-to-year decline and the 13th decline out of the past 16 periods.

For the year, condos and townhomes were down 12.2% from 2006. Single family detached was down 16.9% 2007
versus 2006. The only other year-to-year decline for single family detached was 2000/1999. That was the year of the NASDAQ collapse and the percentage decline was only 2 tenths of 1 percent. On the other hand, the only year-to-year decline since 1996 for condos and townhomes was 1999/1998 and that was only 8 tenths of 1 percent.

Total single family was down 16.2% for the entire year, 2007 versus 2006. Since 1996 there has never been a reported year-year decline for all single family housing, until 2007.

The very weak demand for housing during 2007 really showed up in the pricing trends for December. The average sale price in December for single family detached was $250,910 or a decline of 3.5% from December 2006. Since 1994, this is the greatest year-to-year monthly negative change in average price. There have been only 5 negative changes in year-to-year monthly average price declines in the past 13 years and two of them have been in the past three months.

The average price for condos and townhomes was $186,034 in December. This was a 7.8% decline from December
2006 and the lowest reported average price since July 2006.

Single family detached had 8,128 expired listings in December, easily a new monthly record, surpassing September 2007’s 6,561.

There were 1,656 expired listings for condos & townhomes in December and a new monthly record, easily surpassing December 2006’s 1,311 expired listings. For all single family there were 76,140 expired listings in 2007 or almost 20,000 more than 2006.

Days-on-market for all single family was 88.1 for 2007. This is the highest recorded yearly DOM since 1994.

Well, we are through with December and 2007! Now we are in 2008 and we need more interest rate cuts and to stay out of recession. However, it may be too late. Hopefully recent and future actions by the government can stave off any economic downturn.

However, what a GREAT time to buy a home in 2008, as lower interest rates are coming, prices are coming down, and it is an entertaining election year! What a FANTASTIC time to buy a home!

Thank you,

Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2007 Smart Numbers

Popularity: 57% [?]

There is actually a glimmer of good news to report this month. There were 4,185 closings for all single family in October. This was another large year-to-year decrease, 31.0%, but after lags are reported October may exceed September’s result.

Historically, Octobers’ closings have always been less than September. It will be close, but still a good chance it will happen, as only a few hundred lags will be needed to surpass September.

Another good sign to report is that 4,970 single-family homes went under contract in October versus 4,399 in September. If the ratios hold out there should also be more closings in November than in October.

Why is our market starting to turn around? First, the FED dropped interest rates a half a point in September and now a quarter of a point the end of October. Second, our prices are dropping and in some areas are dropping a lot.

The average price for condos and townhomes was $183,735 in October or a decline of 4.2% from October 2006. It is also the lowest reported average price for condos and townhomes since July 2005.

The average price for single family detached was $248,333 in October or a decline of 0.3% from the same year ago period. This was also the lowest average price reported since February 2006.

There were 1,134 expired listings for condos and townhomes in October. This is the third highest monthly total of all time and when you add September’s record number to it you would exceed the total for all of the year 2000.

There were 6,436 expired listings for single family detached in October. This was just short of being a record, as it was only 120 less than September’s all time record. I believe we will still see more records broken for expired listings before 2007 is over.

There were 3,369 withdrawn listings for all single family and ranks only behind August as the highest reported for a month.

The days-on-market for all single family was 90.8 in October. This is the highest reported DOM since February 1998.

Plus, the average year to date DOM for 2007 is 87.0 and if this does not go down by year-end it will be the highest yearly average since 1994!

The inventory levels are not dropping in the Fall as in the past, as the record number of foreclosures keeps being added to the inventory. This is a large part of our lower prices, but at the same time are helping fuel our minor comeback, because they are being absorbed at a greater rate than the rest of the market. I believe there is a whole lot more foreclosures to still hit our housing market.

There are a couple encouraging signs in October and I would normally be optimistic that we would be starting our turnaround. However, the equity markets have weakened again, gasoline is soaring, and the credit markets are unstable. We will need a few more months of positive numbers before a definitive positive outlook can be projected.

If we can stay out of recession, I believe 2008 will definitely improve.

Thank you,

Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2007 Smart Numbers

Popularity: 29% [?]

September ended what may be the worst year-to-year quarterly (July-September) percentage change in single family units closed that will ever be reported. At least I hope so.

There were 4,017 units closed for all single family in September. This is a 39.6% decline from September 2006. Plus, last September was our first year-to-year percentage decline reported during our housing recession. Even after lags are reported the percentage decline will be 24-27%, easily our greatest percentage decline to be reported since the early 90’s.

Single family detached closed 3,406 units or a decline of 39.6% and condos & townhomes closed 611 units or a decline of 39.7%. However, we are also comparing against a very strong housing market from 2004-2006. Even without the 4th quarter the year-to-date closings in 2007 are more than we had for all of 2002 and we could have more closings at year-end than we had in 2004.

The average price for all single family was $255,011 in September and $257,692 for year-to-date 2007. Both of the averages are up 2.6% and 2.9% from 2006.

The median price for year-to-date 2007 is $195,000, compared to 2006’s median price of $192,500 or an increase of 1.3%. The reason the increase for “average” is higher than the increase for “median” is that the high-end market has not declined like the rest of the market. The following chart is for 1MM+ closings for the past three years through September. One of the bright spots for housing in 2007 is that the high-end is ahead of last year.

yr/mth 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Total

2005 20 50 51 63 50 84 80 73 64 535

2006 38 53 73 67 95 115 99 77 62 679

2007 41 61 94 73 108 122 82 90 54 725

The record for expired listings for all single family was broken in September. There were 7,808 expired listings, easily surpassing the previous record of 7,168 from last December. This record will most likely be broken again before 2008.

There were 3,028 withdrawn listings for all single family in September. This fell short of the record broken in August, but was still the 3rd highest on record.

Days on market for all single family was 91.5 in September. This is the highest recorded DOM for all single family since February 1998.

Months-supply has slowed its increase, but the three year comparison greatly reflects our housing slowdown.

Months Supply 09/30/2005 09/30/2006 09/30/2007 % Change 06′

New - Single Family Detached 7.4 10.5 14.0 33.3%

New - Condos & Townhomes 7.3 8.8 14.2 61.4%

Resale - Single Family Detached 6.3 7.3 10.8 47.9%

Resale - Condos & Townhomes 10.0 9.1 11.3 24.2%

The good news, it is a great time to buy, the FED cut interest rates, consumer confidence increased for the first time in seven months, and the equity markets have improved. What we need is another rate cut, increased consumer confidence, and the equity markets continuing to improve. If this happens, housing will start to come back. October, November, and December will be key reporting periods to see if this will happen.

Thank you,

Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2007 Smart Numbers

Popularity: 31% [?]

We got our rate cut this week! We HAD to have this reduction, but will it be enough to turn our housing market around? I believe there will be one or two more interest rate reductions before the end of the year. They will be needed after looking at August 2007 results.

There were 5,129 closings for all single family in August. This is a decline of 34.6% from the same year ago period. After lagged closings are reported, the percentage decline will most likely be more than 20% and the largest percentage decline on record (since 1996).

Single family detached closed 4,343 units in August or a decline of 34.6% from the same year ago period. This was the 6th consecutive percentage decline and 12 out of the last 13 periods have produced a negative year-to-year percentage change.Condos and Townhomes closed 785 units or a decline of 33.7% from August 2006. This was the 6th consecutivepercentage decline and the 9th percentage decline over the past 12 monthly periods.

The average sale price for single family detached closings in August was $278,871 versus $264,510 for the same year ago period. Condos and townhomes had an average price of $193,009 versus $186,557 for August 2006.

There were 7,181 expired listings in August. This was 19 more than Last December’s all-time record and 2,100 more than August 2006.

There are 36,894 expired listings for single family detached for year-to-date August 2007. There are 10,000+ more expired listings than were reported for the first eight months of 2006 and more expired listings than were reported for all of 2002.

Single family detached and condos & townhomes broke the record in August for most withdrawn listings for a given period. Single family detached had 3,196 withdrawn listings in August and easily surpassed the previous record of 2,920 withdrawn listings in June 2007. Condos and townhomes had 546 withdrawn listings in August and also easily surpassed the previous record of 495 withdrawn listings in June 2007.

Days on market and months supply continue to increase. Days on market for all single family is averaging 86.2 through year-to-date 2007. This is the highest average for the past 13 years and it is expected to go only higher.

Days on market for year-to-date 2007 for condos and townhomes is 95.0 and is the highest yearly average since records have been kept. The previous high was last year’s 91.0.

Months supply is at an all-time high and below is a three year August trend:

Months Supply 08/31/2005 08/31/2006 08/31/2007 % Change 06′

New - Single Family Detached 7.5 10 13.8 38.0%

New - Condos & Townhomes 7.5 8.4 13.7 63.1%

Resale - Single Family Detached 6.6 7.4 10.8 45.9%

Resale - Condos & Townhomes 10.5 9.5 11.4 20.0%

The rate cut was indeed very good for our housing market. However, more is needed and consumer sentiment needs to improve and soon. I believe 3rd quarter will be our bottom and then our slow turn for improvement willbegin in the 4th quarter.

Thank you,

Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2007 Smart Numbers

Popularity: 29% [?]

There were 6,043 closings for all single family in July. This is a decline of 20.9% from July 2006 and the 5th consecutive monthly decline and the 9th decline over the past 11 periods.

Single family detached closed 5,150 units in July or a decline of 21.5% from the same year ago period. Condos and townhomes closed 891 units in July or a decline of 17.6% from the same year ago period.

These are all large year-to-year percentage declines, but there may be indications that a “bottom” is near. After lags were reported for June, the year-to-year percentage decline for all residential closings is now 19.5%. When lags are reported for July the percentage decline should be around 10-12%, which would be well below June’s 19% decline and even below May’s 14.7% decline. Hopefully we can now continue to reduce our declines and eventually have an increase before year-end.

The average sale price for all single family was $267,338 in July. This was down $5M from June’s record, but still the second highest recorded sale price for all single family residential for a reporting period.

The average closing price in July for single family detached was $278,797, while the average price for condos and townhomes was $201,168.

There were 6,579 expired listings for all residential in July. This is 1,800 more than July 2006, but still 600 less than December 2006’s record. There were 3,034 withdrawn listings for all residential in July. This was also a large increase over the same year ago period (1,000), but 400 less that June 2007’s record.

However, the combined total of expired and withdrawn listings for all residential was a new record at 9,613, easily surpassing June 2007’s previous record of 9,238. I expect this record to again be broken in the near future.

Months supply for all residential was 11.1 at the end of July. This is another record and the attached grid shows the months-supply history for the past 12 periods between single family detached and condos & townhomes.

Mths-Supply Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07

Detached 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.1 8.4 9.0 9.3 10.1 10.6 11.1 11.4 11.7

Attached 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.1 7.6 8.0 8.3 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.4 10.7

Looking deeper into the months-supply for specific price points, we have over a two-year supply for housing $750,000 and above. There is over a 13 month-supply for homes $250,000-$750,000.

Unless the overall economy starts taking a turn for the worse, housing could start turning around in the 4th quarter. We received a half a point FED “window” rate reduction this week, but I still believe more is needed. At least two quarter-point reductions and another half point “window” rate deduction are needed before November to help start turning this market around.

I have been “pumping” up the press to state that now is the time to buy, as employment is high and interest rates are still low. Remind your move up buyers that they may get less for their home now, but will save even more on their move up home!

Thank you,

Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2007 Smart Numbers

Popularity: 26% [?]

June had more records broken and more surprises than any other reporting period I can remember.

There were 6,220 single-family closings in June or a large decrease of 30.5% from June 2006. Single family detached had 5,310 closings or a decline of 30.3% from June 2006 and condos and townhomes had 910 closings or a decline of 32% from June 2006.

There has never been a percentage decline reported over 30% for either single family detached or condos and townhomes. Even after lags are reported, June will probably replace May 2007 as the greatest percentage decline on record for all single family closings for a given year-to-year reporting period.

The average sale price for single family detached was broken in June and it was not even close. We had broken the record for the highest average price for a given period last period, May 2007, but after lags were reported the average dropped a bit, so June 2007 broke August 2006’s average of 264,526 by $28,000!

The average price in June for single family detached was $292,245. I went through the numbers to see if there was/were an “outlier/s”, but there were none. I needed to show again, like I did last reporting period, how there can be a large drop in closings, while at the same time a large increase in average price.

June 2005 2006 2007

Million $+ Closings 81 113 112

% of All Closings 1.14% 1.48% 2.11%

Million $+ Volume 126MM 171MM 171MM

% of All Volume 6.66% 8.18% 11.03%

As you can see, million dollar plus closings have not nearly slowed like the rest of the market. More than one out of fifty homes closed in June was a million dollar plus closing. Over eleven percent of the dollar volume closed in June came from million-dollar plus closed homes.

Expired Listings, withdrawn listings, and months-supply just keep rising and breaking records. Below is chart of months-supply for detached and attached (condos & townhomes). 2007’s slowing, combined with increased inventories, has really pushed up the months-supply. As can be reviewed, we are closing in on a “years” months supply of homes on the market.

As a review, if no more homes were added to the market and the current inventory of homes did not expire or withdraw, it would statistically take 11.6 months to sell-off our single family detached inventory!

Mths-Supply Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07

Detached 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.1 8.4 9.0 9.3 10.1 10.6 11.1 11.6

Attached 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.1 7.9 7.4 7.9 8.3 9.1 9.6 10.2 10.8

There were 3,430 withdrawn listings in June. This easily broke the old record from, of course, May 2007 with 2,974. There have now been more withdrawn listings though the first half of 2007 for all single family than there were for all of 2005.

We are very close to a bottom. However, when we “turn around” it will be a gradual turn.

Thank you,

Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2007 Smart Numbers

Popularity: 22% [?]

A lot of records were broken in May. However, most were negative and there is a good chance they will be broken again and soon.

First, and the worst, May closings for all single family decreased 28.5% or the largest percentage decline in our records dating back to 1994. The next two largest declines on record are April 2007 and March 2007, so the top three largest year-to-year percentage decreases over the past 13 years have been the last three reporting periods.

The breakdown for the single family decline had single family detached dropping 29.2% and condos and townhomes dropping 24.5%. There were 5,045 single family detached closings in May versus 7,122 for May 2006 and there were 907 condo and townhome closings in May versus 1,201 for May 2006.

Even when all lags are reported, the decline will be the largest on record. Unfortunately, there is a good chance that it could be broken again in June, as June 2006 was our all-time high closings month on record.

The average sale price for all single family in May was $264,487. This surpassed July 2006’s $263,087, so an alltime high was achieved.

How can an all-time record high for the average sales price be in the same period for an all-time percentage decline in closings? Below is a chart showing the number of million dollar plus closings for the month of May for the last three years. Even though May 2007 was down 29% from May 2006 for all closings, the number of million dollar plus closings were up. Not only were they up on closings by 2, but the 97 closings were over 9% of May’s volume.

May 2005 2006 2007

Million $+ Closings 50 95 97

% of All Closings 0.69% 1.14% 1.63%

Million $+ Volume 77,008,469 150,045,490 143,621,385

% of All Volume 4.36% 7.02% 9.12%

The average price went up because the high-end market has not dropped off like the rest of the market. May might have been our largest percentage decline on record, but if you’re an agent in the high-end you might still be doing well in this market.

There were 4,943 expired listings for all single family versus 3,760 expired listings for the same year ago period.

There were 2,983 withdrawn listing in May for all single family, and for the 3rd consecutive period we have broken the all-time record for withdrawn listings. There have been more single family withdrawn listings through May 2007 than there were for all 2001.

Months-supply for all single family went over double digits at the end of May. There were 10.5 months-supply at the end of May, and the end of June will probably be even higher.

I still believe we will hit “bottom” this summer. However, interest rates have shot up this week to 2002 levels. If the FED does not drop rates soon, our housing recession will go on longer.

Thank you,

Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2007 Smart Numbers

Popularity: 22% [?]

There were 5,672 closings for all single family in April. This is a decline of 15.0% from March 2006, but could be the start of the 4th consecutive year-to-year quarterly decline. The following is a grid for the past five year-to-year quarterly percentage changes.

1qtr06 2qtr06 3qtr06 4qtr06 1qtr01 2qtr07

13.92% 8.92% -1.01% -6.31% -3.55% ?????

Single family detached had 4,797 closings or a year-to-year decline of 14.9%. This was the 9th consecutive period decline for single family detached.

Condos and townhomes closed 875 units or a year-to-year decline of 15.1%. After lagged closings are reported, the percentage change for condos, townhomes, and detached could still be in the double digits.

The average sale price for condos and townhomes for April was $202,190. This is a record high, eclipsing December 05’s $201,546, and was an increase of 5.0% over the same year ago period.

Single family detached had an average sale price of $265,818, which is an increase of 2.3% from April 2006.

When we have rising inventories and slowing demand there will always be increases in expired and withdrawn listings. In April there were 2,698 withdrawn listings for all single family. This is an increase of 1,129 from April 2006. For 2007 year-to-date there are more withdrawn listings than for all of 2005! This is also an all-time record for a monthly period.

There were 5,136 expired listings in April. This was an increase of 1,229 units over the same year ago period. There have been 19,502 year-to-date expired listings, which is almost equal to the total expired listings in all of 2000.

There were almost as many expired single family listings in April as there were closings. However, if you combine the withdrawn listings and the expired listings then there were 38% more expired & withdrawn listings than there were closings.

Months supply of inventory had detached-new at 12.5 months; attached-new at 11.8 months; detached-resale at 8.9 months; and attached-resale is 10.2 month’s supply. An average or standard months-supply is 6-8 months.

Days-on-market for all single family was 84.3. This is 6.0 days greater than April 2005 and the highest April DOM since April 1996’s 92.1.

We will continue our downward trend through the second quarter and into the third, but I still believe the turnaround will arrive at the end of the 3rd quarter or the 4th quarter. I predict the FED will “finally” react and reduce interest rates within 4-5 periods.

We have a buyer’s market with low interest rates, a lot of homes to chose from, and low unemployment, so if you’re a selling agent, disregard the media and get this market going.

Thank you,

Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2007 Smart Numbers

Popularity: 24% [?]

There were 6,070 closings for all single family in March. This is a decline of 16.7% from March 2006, but only a decline of 5% from March 2005. March 2006 was a strong closing month and after lags are reported we should still be ahead of March 2005.

Single family detached was down 16.7%, while condos and townhomes were down 16.8%. Condos and townhomes had 963 closings versus 5,107 for single family detached. As can be seen from this latest period, condos and townhomes are becoming a large part of our housing market, as almost 16% or 1/6th of all closings are now a condo or a townhome.

The average sale price for all single-family closings in March was $256,336 or an increase of 4.8% from the same year ago period. When housing is down, prices usually remain “flat” or even decline. However, the 4.8% increase is the largest percentage increase since December 2005.

Single family detached had an average price of $268,799 or a 6.1% increase over March 2006. Condos and townhomes had an average price of $190,243 or a decline of 4%. The two charts for average sale prices for condos & townhomes and single family detached show how these two housing categories have differed over the past 5 years. Condos and townhomes have not changed much, while single family detached has experienced moderate sustained growth in prices.

There are almost 30% more total single-family active listings on the market at the end of March compared to March 2006. However, there is double the amount of active single family listings than there were 5 years ago. With demand being flat and active listings on the rise, prices should come under pressure during the spring and summer.

The months-supply of single family detached hit another all-time high with almost 8 months supply on the market at the end of March. If you are a buyer’s agent you will have a lot of homes and many buying opportunities this spring with your clients. However, if you are a listing agent I would recommend using the absorption reports to help your listing clients in what to expect in their specific area and price-point.

We found over 1,100 listings that were “previously” on the market that closed in March. This was a very high number and during the higher selling months in the spring & summer this number should increase a lot.

There were 4,634 expired listings for all single family in March. This was 1,124 more than March 2006. This was not a record high, but we did hit a new record high for withdrawn listings. There were 2,449 withdrawn listings for all single family in March. This easily surpassed the previous record of 2,297 withdrawn listings in August 2006. With our current record high inventories more records will fall this year.

Days-on-market was 88.4 for single family detached in March. It was 89.2 for the first quarter, which is the highest first quarter DOM since 1998.

We had a very strong 2nd quarter 2006, so our housing “recession” will continue for a few more months, but I believe we will see increases by the 4th quarter this year. Also, we do have an election year next year, which usually bodes well for real estate.

Thank you,

Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2007 Smart Numbers

Popularity: 19% [?]