There were 4,924 closings for all single family in February. This is a decline of 9.5% over February 2006 and the 6th consecutive period decline.

Single family detached closed 4,181 units in February, or a decline of 9.9% from the same year ago period. This is the 7th consecutive monthly decline, but none of the percentage decreases have been double digit. We have slowed, but not drastically.Condos and townhomes had 743 closings in February, or a decline of 7.1%. After reporting a double-digit percentage increase in January, the trend has reversed again in February. This is also the 4

th decline for condos and townhomes over the past six periods.

The average sale price for condos and townhomes was unchanged in February from the same year ago period. The average was $192,811 versus $192, 763 for February 2006.

The average sale price for single family detached was $254,659 or an increase of 2.6% over February 2006. With continued demand and increasing inventories, I do not expect any significant appreciation of home prices this spring. Price increases for single family detached of 5.2% in January and 2.6% in February will be on the “high” side for the first half of 2007.

Inventories of homes for sale is at all-time highs for Atlanta. When inventories are at records high and demand is “flat” or down, then many indicators and other factors are at all-time highs too.

The months supply for single family detached was at 8.4 at the end of February. This is a record and all indications are that this will continue to rise over the next few months.

The single family detached 12 month moving average for months-supply was at an all-time high at the end of February. The 12-month average was 7.6 and the previous high was in August 2003.

There were 6,161 expired single family detached listings for the first two periods in 2007. This is an increase of almost 1,900 expired listings over the same two periods for 2006 and almost 50% of the entire total of expired listings for 2000.

The number of withdrawn listings keeps surging too, as there were 4,315 withdrawn listing for all single family for the first periods in 2007. This is a large increase over the 2,736 withdrawn listings for the same two periods in 2006.

Days on market was at 90.5 for single family detached in February. This is the first time DOM has been above 90 for single family detached since February 1998.

I have gone over a lot of negative trends in this recap, but there are some positives too. Atlanta’s housing market has slowed, but not dropped significantly like some other metro housing markets. Right now is one of the best times to buy a home, as we have interest rates on the decline again, low unemployment, and affordable homes.

Thank you,

Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2007 Smart Numbers

Popularity: 9% [?]

There were 4,454 closings for all single family detached to start out the first period of 2007. This was down 8.1% from January 2006, but after lags are reported the decline will be much less.

This is a good sign. The decline of 8.1% is less than December’s 10.4% decline with no lags. This will probably be the best year-to-year change-reporting period for closings since August 2006 when we had a modest 1.3% increase.

Single family detached had 3,434 closings for January or a year-to-year decline of 9.8%. This will be the 6th consecutive decline after 40 consecutive increases.

Condos and townhomes had 658 closings or an increase of 1.9% from January 2006. This is a good improvement from December’s 9.0% decline with lags reported.

The average sale price in January for single family detached was $254,388. This was increase of 5.6% from January 2006 and the largest year-to-year period increase since December 2005. This may be another sign that the housing market may be starting to “turn the corner.”

The average sale price for condos and townhomes was $190,450 or a decline of 0.6% from January 2006. This is the main reason why condos and townhomes had an increase, while single family detached had a decline in closings.

The overall inventory of homes for sale is going through some extreme status changes. This can be expected in a slow housing market with high inventories.

The number of expired listings in January for all single family detached was 5,505. This is up almost 30% from January 2006. However, that increase is small compared to withdrawn listings reported in January. There were 2,246 withdrawn listings or an increase of 65% over January 2006.

There were a combined 16,000 expired and withdrawn listings for both December 2006 and January 2007. That is 60% more than what closed for all single family.

I am including the year-to year inventory trending grid. At the end of December a lot of consumers have taken their properties off the market for the holidays, so it very common to see upward shifts in months supply in January and 2007 was very indicative of this trend.

MonthsSupply

01/31/2006

MonthsSupply

01/31/2007 % Change

New - Single Family Detached 7.6 12.0 57.9%

New - Condos & Townhomes 7.1 10.5 47.9%

Resale - Single Family Detached 5.7 7.0 22.8%

Resale - Condos & Townhomes 8.8 8.5 -3.4%

The day-on-market for January was 90.6 for all single family. This is the second consecutive period above 90 days and the first time this has happened since 1998.

I believe the slowdown in housing has damaged our economy enough that an interest rate cut, not a hike is needed. This could take place, hopefully, before our summer season.

Thank you,

Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2007 Smart Numbers

Popularity: 9% [?]

We are reporting on very different year-end statistics than we did a year ago. At the end of 2006 we had a down housing market compared to the end of 2005 when housing was really exploding up.

There were 80,308 closings for all single family in 2006. This was still an increase over 2005 by 2.5% or 2,000 closings. Detached single family was up 1.2%, while condos and townhomes were up a very respectable 10.5% in 2006.

In December there were 5,549 closings for all single family. This is a decrease of 14.2% from December 2005 and the 4th consecutive monthly decline. Detached single family was down 14.3% or the 5th consecutive decline, while condos and townhomes were down 13.8% or the 3rddecline over the past 4 periods.

The average sale price for all single family for 2006 was $250,483 or only a 2.1% increase over 2005. This is the smallest percentage increase since records have been kept. The average sale price for the past 5 periods (August-December) was only up 1% from the same year ago time frame.

The average sale price for single family detached was $260,723 for 2006, while condos and townhomes had an average price of $192,495.

The average price for condos and townhomes for December was $200,158 and the first time that the average was above $200M.

Many records were broken for expired and withdrawn listings for both the month and the year for December and 2006. There were 21,942 withdrawn listings for all single family or 4,200 more than 2005’s record high. There were also 56,094 expired listings for all single family or almost 5,000 more than 2004’s record high.

In December there were 1,301 expired listings for condos and townhomes and 5,804 expired listings for detached single family. Both of these set record highs easily surpassing 1,091 in December 05 and 5,611 in September 06.

Days on market ended the year at 79.3 for all single family. This was unchanged from 2005, while single family detached was down .04 days at 77.2 and condos and townhomes were up 1.1 days at 91.0.

Below is a chart that really sums up our year-to-year housing market from 2005 to 2006. I have always stated that months supply is the best gauge for the “health” of a housing market. The higher the months supply the weaker the market and visa versa.

12/31/2005 12/31/2006 % Change

New - Single Family Detached 7.4 11.2 51.4%

New - Condos & Townhomes 6.9 9.6 39.1%

Resale - Single Family Detached 5.4 6.5 20.4%

Resale - Condos & Townhomes 8.5 8 -5.9%

As you can see, months supply is much greater for the “high priced” new construction and has increased dramatically over the past year. In 2007, demand for the lower priced resales and discounting on high priced lots for new construction should reverse this trend.

Interest rates need to remain low and employment levels remain high, so that housing can rebound in 2007. This should be by the end of the second quarter or in the third quarter 2007.

Thank you,

Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2007 Smart Numbers

Popularity: 8% [?]

A lot of negative news will be reported this period. However, after I report on the downers, I will share some encouraging numbers.

All single family housing closed 5,182 units in November. This is down 15% from November 2005 and will be the first three consecutive year-to-year declines since the 4th quarter 1999. Those three periods in 1999 had declines averaging less than 3%, while our last three periods will have an average percentage decline of over 6%.Single family attached was down 15% and condos and townhomes were down 15.4%. This was the second decline in the last three-quarters for condos and townhomes, while it was the 4th consecutive monthly decline for detached.

Our housing market was very strong from 12/2005 to 6/2006, so in order to see positive year-to-year changes, there definitely needs to be much more demand than we have experienced the past few periods.

The average sale price for single family detached was $257,676 in November. This was an increase of only 1.7% from the same year ago period and for the year the detached market is only up 2.4% from 2005’s average price. If the year-to-year percentage change is 2.6% or less, it will be the lowest year-to-year percentage change since data has been reported, 1994-1995.

Condos and townhomes had an average sale price of $192,901 for November or a 4.2% increase over November 2005. For the year, the average price for condos and townhomes are up 2.9% over 2005.

The two sectors that have slowed the most are new homes and the high-end home market. The months supply for single family detached new construction increased from 11.2 at the end of October to 11.5 at the end of November.

The months supply for condo and townhome new construction increased from 9.7 at the end of October to 10.0 at the end of November.

The months supply for single family detached resales decreased from 7.3 at the end of October to 7.1 at the end of November. The months supply for condo and townhome resales decreased from 9.2 at the end of October to 8.8 at the end of November.

Why the difference from new homes? Lot prices have appreciated 45% from 2003-2006 in Metro Atlanta. This is much greater than the appreciation rate for the resale market and currently resales provide a greater overall value for the consumer than new construction. However, after increased demand for resales and some discounting for new construction we should see demand again increase for new construction.

There is a bright spot at the end of November. Pending sales declined 7.3% in 2005 from the end of October to the end of November. However, they have declined only 2% for the same period in 2006. Those low home prices may be starting to be too attractive?

Interest rates have declined since their high on 6/29/06. If rates can remain low, home prices continue to moderate and employment remains high then we can reverse our recent downturns into positive gains in 2007. I believe rates will remain low, and with low demand home prices will remain flat, so the key will be employment. Housing “bailed” out our dot-com crash and economy after 4/2000. Now we need to have our economy remain strong for a 2007 housing recovery.

Thank you,

Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2006 Smart Numbers

Popularity: 8% [?]

Popularity: 8% [?]

There is a lot of negative news to report this period. However, we all knew this was going to happen, Smartnumbers predicted it would happen back in 2005, and we also know that we should have a fairly quick turnaround.

For the second consecutive period the year-to-year change for single family closings will be negative. There were 5,180 single family detached closings in September. This was down 14.5% from September 2005 and is our largest negative percentage change since March 2003.

There were 899 closings for townhomes and condominiums in September. This is down 15% from the same year ago period and will be the first period year-to-year negative change since March 2003.

There were 6,079 closings for all single family in September or a year-to-year decline of 14.5%. This is also the largest decline since March 2003 and also the second consecutive year-to-year negative period change.

The average sale price for single family detached closings in September was $258,278. This was only 1% higher than September 2005 and way below 2005’s 6.3% increase over 2004. This was also $18,000 less than our all-time high that was established in July.

The average sale price for condos and townhomes was $193,338 for September. This was an increase of 1.2% from the same year ago period and still a larger percentage increase than the 2004-2005 and 2003-2004 annual reporting periods. Reviewing the average sale price charts, please note how the average sale price for condos and townhomes has not changed much over the past few years.

When there is high inventory and slowing demand you can expect a lot of expired listings. September broke the record for the most expired single-family listings for a given period. There were 5,605 expired listings for all single family, which exceeded the previous high of 5,551 in December 2005. Before the year is out you can expect this record to be broken again.

There were 2,082 withdrawn listings and the average days-on-market was 77.7 for all single family in September.

The months supply of inventory increased again in September, but was concentrated more towards new homes rather than resales. The months supply for single family detached – new construction went from 10.0 in August to 10.5 in September. The months supply for condos and townhomes – new construction went from 8.4 in August to 8.8 in September. However, the months supply for single family detached – resales went from 7.4 in August to 7.3
in September and the months supply for condos and townhomes - resales went from 9.5 in August to 9.1 in September.

If you’re an agent in the high end housing market you need to concentrate your efforts within and around the Perimeter, as in any housing downturn the high-end “rural” markets are affected the most and are the last segment to turn the corner.

Thank you,
Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2006 Smart Numbers

Popularity: 8% [?]

The Atlanta housing market is showing more signs of a slowdown. Single family detached housing closed 6,184 units in August. This is down 7.2% from August 05’and after lagged closings are reported, will probably still be down.

Single family detached closings are still negative for July year-to-year. Even after lags have been reported, single family detached is down 1.4%. Taking into account the results for July and August there is a very good chance that after September is reported we may have our first detached year-to-year down quarter since 1st quarter 2003.

Our streak for consecutive double-digit year-to-year increases for condos and townhomes looks to be in jeopardy. There were 1,046 condo and townhome closings in August. This is a decrease of 2% from August 2005 and after lags are reported we should have an increase, but not a double digit one.

The average sale price for single family detached in August was $267,174. This is an increase of 2.5% from the same year ago period. This was also the sixth out of eight 2006 reporting periods that have had a year to year change for single family detached that is below the lowest change for all of 2005.

Through eight periods of 2006 we have an average sale price for single family detached of $263,287. This is an increase of 3.3% over 2005, but 2005 had an increase of 6.3% over 2004.
Condos and townhomes had an average price of $186,669, which is unchanged from July 2005 and all of 2005.

Our inventory keeps increasing. Single family detached - new went from 9.4 to 10.0 (months-supply), condos and townhomes – new went from 7.6 to 8.4, single family detached – resale went from 7.2 to 7.4, and condos and townhomes – resale went from 9.4 to 9.5. As you can see, all categories for months supply went up from July 2005, but the “higher” priced new homes increased much more than resales.

Expired listings had a large year-to-year increase in August. The number of expired listings for all single family was 5,031 compared to 4,193 a year ago. This was the 9th consecutive increase and the largest unit increase since May 2003. With our increasing inventory and slowing of demand, the number expired listings will very likely break all-time records by the end of 2006.

The number of withdrawn listings for all single family was 2,304 in August. This was an all-time high and our third straight month we have had over 2,000 withdrawn single family listings.
I have mentioned a number of negative trends, but now for the good. Atlanta is slowing, but not nearly as bad as in other markets, i.e. Florida, West Coast, and Northeast, etc. I believe that Atlanta will have a “soft” landing or minimal slowing that should not last more than a few quarters. Interest rates have declined since 6/29 and gasoline prices have tumbled back down over a $1 off their highs of a month ago.

If we can maintain these recent positive economic trends, plus have unemployment remain low and interest rates not increase, housing will improve.

Thank you,
Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
© 2006 Smart Numbers

Popularity: 8% [?]

Popularity: 7% [?]

Popularity: 7% [?]

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